The IEA’s net-zero scenario sees Opec market share rising to record highs, but in a rapidly shrinking market with falling prices. Producers argue that their low-cost production is safe even in a challenged market. But how will they respond to the existential threat of a global transition away from oil? By staying united to preserve revenues? Or by maximizing production to monetize resources and capture market share? How will Opec-plus navigate the challenges ahead?