Geopolitics and Transition: The New Nexus

Following Trump’s re-election, how will policy changes and trade tensions between the US, EU and China affect the advancement of renewable power, electric vehicles and fossil fuel demand? How will this affect relations between energy producers and consumers, and between the Global North and South? How will governments manage domestic pressures and difficulties to deliver their climate commitments?

New Alliances and New Conflicts

How will the election of Donald Trump bolster, undermine or change the dynamics of traditional alliances? How will Trump’s push for energy dominance impact US allies and adversaries? How are strengthening ties between countries like Russia and China and expansion of groups like BRICS changing the geopolitical landscape? How will these increasing powerful alignments challenge Trump and the West; and impact global flashpoints in the Middle East, Ukraine and Taiwan.

Taking Stock of Transport

The headlines are full of negative news – and yet, global EV sales have consistently beaten forecasts. Hybrids are experiencing a renaissance, but ICE vehicles are not being retired from the vehicle fleet. How should we decipher these mixed messages? Will Trump torpedo the EV industry in the US? What do worries about China’s dominance of the EV sector in the West mean for uptake? Can advances in engine technology revive the outlook for ICE vehicles? Can bio and synthetic fuels compete?

Energy Companies and National Strategies

Energy company strategies are becoming more varied and sophisticated as they balance the pressures of the transition and the demands of host governments and major state shareholders. Can companies afford to fund the transition, energy security and the state budget? How are states deploying energy companies to further geopolitical goals in a changing world? What could governments ask of energy firms in the future? And how will they respond? What new models are being tried? How are state companies planning given the uncertainty around both the future of oil demand and trajectory of prices?

Energy and Competitiveness

In his landmark report released in September, Mario Draghi argued the EU’s high energy costs have helped make the bloc uncompetitive with the US and China. What can we learn from Germany’s struggles to maintain its economic edge amidst higher energy costs? Can Europe manage its growing energy dependence on the US? Can other countries catch up with China’s commanding lead in the transition business? How will US tariffs impact Beijing’s advantages? How can countries decarbonize their economies at the lowest costs without undercutting their industries?

Elections Everywhere: What Next?

More than 3 billion people went to the polls in global elections capped by the momentous return of Trump in the US. How will Trump’s election, along with the anti-incumbency seen globally impact geopolitics, energy, and climate? What does Trump's push for energy dominance mean for the world? Could this accelerate the shift to a multi-polar world and alter the energy transition, or will other issues take priority?

What Do Investors Want From Energy Companies?

Will markets ever value “Big Energy” conglomerates? Should companies focus on what they know best, and leave capital allocation to the market? How should markets assess companies focused on very cheap renewable power, nascent hydrogen or ever-evolving battery technology? Is energy destined in future to be a lower-value business? How could cultural and political changes impact investor expectations and energy company strategies?

The Race to Decarbonize Industry

Hydrogen, electrification, carbon capture and nuclear are all vying to be the go-to solution for energy intensive industries like steel, chemicals, shipping and aviation. How will industrial policy and geopolitical competition determine winners and losers? What does Trump’s election mean for the landmark US IRA and these industries? Will there be a single winner or will each find a niche?

Inside the Board Room

How are the highest-ranking corporate leaders grappling with the biggest issues facing energy companies? How are they weighing the risks and rewards of complex geopolitics? How are they navigating conflicting signals from investors? How can they prepare companies for a transition that looks increasingly uneven across the globe? How are company boards thinking about managing rising geopolitical risk?

Traders in Transition

Major trading houses have reported record earnings in the past two years. How are they using that windfall to acquire the assets that will support growing operations in power, LNG and carbon? What do traders expect from commodity markets under Trump? How are traders so successful at navigating the geopolitical risks that trip up other companies?

The Future of Energy Demand

The transition requires a critical look at the way that countries will consume a much wider blend of energy sources. Demand for some forms of energy will decline in developed countries while growing in others. Macroeconomic conditions are becoming harder to translate into accurate forecasts for commodities. How would Trump’s web of tariffs and sanctions impact global supply and demand? How can companies and governments make sense of it all to provide the right amount of energy at the right time to keep the global economy moving?

What is Gas’s Growth Trajectory?

New gas projects continue to roll out in the Middle East and elsewhere. But other projects are running into political and financial headwinds. Are consumers still prepared to sign up for long-term commitments for greenfield projects? How strong are the drivers behind LNG demand? How are countries competing – or failing to compete – for a future share of the global natural gas market? How will a growing focus on energy security influence the future outlook for gas?