If the changing world order were not apparent already, the Covid-19 pandemic has revealed it in the raw.

With the US no longer willing to carry the financial and military costs of its traditional alliances, the post-World War II global order is being reshaped by the emergence of a more assertive China and Moscow’s influence-building, especially in the Middle East and North Africa. An election win by President Donald Trump will only continue these trends, particularly tensions between the US and China. Should Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden win, will he be able to change these realities? How does this all look from China?

Achieving the UN targets of limiting global temperature increases to no more than 1.5° requires an economic transformation the likes of which the world has never seen. Experts are divided on how to get there, but even the optimists concede it will require a major global shift.

How has the Covid-19 pandemic and its economic fallout affected the objectives? Will we see a speeding or slowing of progress toward carbon neutrality over the next three to five years?

Climate action may already be turning destructive for gas policy, both in developed and developing economies. Power is in the firing line, but other growing segments such as transport and shipping could be imperiled as well.

Furthermore, the geopolitics of gas remain as important as ever as national priorities, policies and gas requirements evolve. Beyond the Eastern Mediterranean, Nord Stream 2 and US-China relations flashpoints, gas will remain a key tool in navigating relations among the shifting cohort of buyers and sellers. Given this rapidly changing landscape, how bright is the future for gas?

In this session, long-time Congressman and former US Presidential candidate Dennis Kucinich will offer an insider’s perspective on the upcoming election, which promises to have fundamental implications for the future of the US, the global energy business and the wider world.

The discussion will include scenarios for the election itself and the implications for the future trajectory of the US, the prospects for radical changes in energy and climate policy if Biden wins, the outlook for the industry under a second Trump term, and the implications of the two outcomes for key international energy issues such as Iran, Saudi Arabia and China. 

In a remarkable pivot, some of the world’s largest oil companies have pledged to produce less oil and gas by 2050 driven by investor and social pressure.

This strategy, embraced by many European majors, is not shared by US majors and many national oil companies. They too are aware of the risks of climate change, but they are pursuing other solutions.

So what does a 21st century oil and gas portfolio look like? What assets are transition proof? Which ones need to be discarded? What does it mean for service companies?

This daily round-up of the key themes emerging from day two of the Forum will feature a tribute to our colleague and friend, Dr. Herman Franssen.

When oil markets went wild in the first half of 2020, traders registered record profits, cashing in on the huge swings in volatility and inexperienced players in the paper market.

But as certain companies commit to producing less oil and gas, what does the future of trading look like? Will ESG pressure – driven by society, politicians and investors – force traders into changing their business models, as those factors have stunningly done for international oil companies?

Covid-19 has destroyed long-standing assumptions that underpinned the modeling of future oil demand.

Where are we now? How will demand be impacted this year and next? Longer term, is a prolonged period of cheap oil going to push out previous timelines of peak oil demand? Or will pressures to lower emissions and decarbonize energy instead drive an accelerated contraction in oil demand? Could 2019 be the year that oil demand peaked?

What is the potential of technology to achieve the required scale of decarbonization to have a truly meaningful impact on global emissions?

Can carbon capture and storage projects finally move beyond the pilot stage? What other innovative technologies exist or are being developed to achieve timely, large-scale decarbonization? And, critically, what’s this all going to cost?

US oil production may have peaked due to Covid-19. Low prices and tight capital mean companies are now focused on sustaining rather than growing production.

Has the Covid-19 crash delivered a lasting correction to US shale? Amid the gloom, are there counternarratives? What does the future hold if oil prices rebound and stay steady around $50?