10:00 AM
Welcome & Introductions
 
Lara Sidawi Moore Alex Schindelar
10:15 AM
Leadership Dialogue
 
Fu Chengyu Maryelle Demongeot
11:00 AM
Green swans – How fast and far will the energy transition go?

The energy transition rocketed to the top of the agenda for companies and governments in 2021. But net-zero ambitions are far from a sure thing. What obstacles will the energy transition face? Will it proceed more slowly than all the talk and targets suggest? Or will governments and technology push a period of rapid, head-spinning change? Just how disruptive will the coming years be?   

Fahad Alajlan Giulia Chierchia Mark Lewis Lorenzo Simonelli Alex Martinos
12:00 PM
Leadership Dialogue - Environmental Defense Fund
 
Ronan Kavanagh Fred Krupp
1:00 PM
Energy Executive of the Year Ceremony

Energy Executive of the Year 2021 Award recipient —  H.E. Dr. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, Managing Director & Group CEO, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC)

H.E. Dr. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber Raja W. Sidawi Amin Nasser Alex Schindelar
2:00 PM
Leadership Dialogue - Energy Executive of the Year 2021
 
H.E. Dr. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber Alex Schindelar
3:00 PM
Trading the new commodities: LNG, carbon, hydrogen

The transition is creating a new set of opportunities for trading companies. How do traders see markets for these new commodities evolving? Where are the big opportunities? Can trading carbon ever be as profitable as trading oil? Will an international hydrogen market really take off? What about minerals, carbon offsets?

Russell Hardy Torbjörn Törnqvist Jeremy Weir Marcel van Poecke
4:00 PM
Leadership Dialogue - International Energy Agency
 
Dr Fatih Birol Rafiq Latta
4:40 PM
Our Take: Energy Intelligence Oil Market Outlook

Energy Intelligence oil market experts Abhi Rajendran and Julien Mathonniere discuss our latest outlook for balances and prices. The discussion will focus on the key areas where we differ from consensus expectations—on supply/demand related factors as well as macro, positioning and the influence of geopolitics.

Julien Mathonierre Abhi Rajendran
5:00 PM
Who will own the oil and gas industry of the future?

As the European majors and other public companies shrink their oil portfolios, who will buy their assets – or invest in production to meet continued demand? Can NOCs and private equity fill the gap? Which assets will find buyers, which might be stranded?

Jason Bennett Andrew Fry Philip Lambert Julian Mylchreest Bob Maguire
6:00 PM
Our Take - October Opec Ministerial Meeting
 
Amena Bakr Rafiq Latta Nelli Sharushkina
7:00 PM
Leadership Dialogue - ExxonMobil
 
Neil A. Chapman Casey Merriman
7:45 PM
Closing Remarks
 
 
8:00 AM
Welcome & Introductions
 
Alex Schindelar
8:10 AM
Ministerial Dialogue - Russian Federation
 
Pavel Sorokin Nelli Sharushkina
9:00 AM
Leadership Dialogue - PETRONAS
 
Tengku Muhammad Taufik Maryelle Demongeot
9:35 AM
Partner Briefing - National Hydrocarbons Agency (ANH Colombia)
 
Dr. Armando Zamora Kathrine Schmidt
10:00 AM
Energy Innovation Award Presentation

The Energy Innovation Award recognizes the greatest improvement made by an incumbent oil and gas company in adapting to the energy transition over the previous year.   

Energy Innovation Award 2021 recipient - Equinor

Anders Opedal Lauren Craft
10:20 AM
Our Take: Energy Transition Service Briefing

Energy Intelligence’s energy transition and corporate strategy experts TJ Conway, Alex Martinos and Casey Merriman discuss the rising importance of climate-related priorities and net-zero emissions goals for the oil and gas industry. Using Energy Transition Research’s ESG Climate Risk Benchmark as a foundation, they assess the evolution of investors’ demands, oil and gas companies’ responses to these pressures, and what steps firms will need to take in the near future.

TJ Conway Alex Martinos Casey Merriman
11:00 AM
Advantaged oil and gas: What makes the cut in the age of austerity

A focus on returns over production growth and the accelerating energy transition have made companies more and more choosy about their investments. Spending must flow to the most “advantaged barrels.” But what sets apart these choice assets? Do they look different for companies based on their locations, strategies and skills?

Montri Rawanchaikul Adif Zulkifli Oliver Klaus
12:00 PM
Leadership Dialogue - Saudi Aramco
 
Amin Nasser Alex Schindelar
12:40 PM
Our Take: Country Investment Risk and the Energy Transition

Energy Intelligence’s country risk experts Monica Enfield and Andrew Zoeller discuss how our aboveground risk rating system, the Country Risk Index, has been updated to reflect the changing global risk landscape driven by the energy transition and the shift to a lower hydrocarbon demand future.

Monica Enfield Andrew Zoeller
1:00 PM
Partner Briefing - McKinsey & Company
 
Giorgio Bresciani Noah Brenner
2:00 PM
COP26: Turbocharging the transition

The upcoming Glasgow climate talks are already adding momentum to the energy transition, pushing companies and countries to take on more ambitious targets. What should we expect from the conference and this broader momentum? What policies will countries opt for? How far and fast will they go? How will the momentum play out among investors and broader society?

Jason Bordoff Jennifer Morgan Bjørn Otto Sverdrup Ronan Kavanagh
3:00 PM
Leadership Dialogue - TotalEnergies
 
Patrick Pouyanné Noah Brenner
4:00 PM
The future of gas: Long-term fuel or stop-gap solution?

Rapidly falling renewable power costs and the sober realities of net-zero math are clouding the outlook for natural gas in the developed world. Developing economies says it’s vital, but will they really favor gas over cheap coal? International oil companies bet big on gas as a future clean fuel – will those bets pay off?

Mark Brownstein Alan Heng De la Rey Venter Ian Nathan
5:00 PM
Energy Intelligence Briefing: Our Take on the Transition

Energy Intelligence has consistently led the pack in understanding and predicting the pace and direction of the energy transition, guided by our extensive contacts and conversations with officials in technology, auto, finance and other sectors. Our experts discuss where they see the transition going next -- in policy, technology and corporate strategy. Learn about the issues that will dominate tomorrow’s conversations – today. 

TJ Conway Casey Merriman Abhi Rajendran Philippe Roos
6:00 PM
Post-covid geo-politics

The rise of China, the disruption of the Covid pandemic and the energy transition are redefining the geopolitics of energy in the 21st century. Populism and nationalism have already challenged accepted norms but these new pressures threaten further disruption. How has the most tumultuous year of this century upended – and illustrated – modern geopolitics.  

Alastair Crooke Ambassador Chas Freeman Sara Vakhshouri Emily Meredith
7:00 PM
Leadership Dialogue - U.S. Department of Energy
 
David M. Turk Bridget DiCosmo
7:40 PM
Our Take: Energy Intelligence Exploration Outlook

Energy Intelligence competitive intelligence experts Luke Johnson and Neill Tannock discuss the outlook for upstream exploration. Despite many companies’ strategic shift reducing capital allocation away from exploration, certain regional plays are expected to remain popular and a handful of companies will remain committed to organic growth through the drill bit.

Luke Johnson Neill Tannock
8:00 PM
Getting to net-zero – Strategies for companies, cities and countries to reach their climate goals

Net zero targets are spreading quickly, but details on what that journey looks like are thin on the ground. How will companies and governments work together toward such targets? What can governments do to help companies build a new energy system, and vice versa? Who will foot the bill?

Jules Kortenhorst Dr Emily Reichert Darryl Willis Kathrine Schmidt
8:45 PM
Closing Remarks
 
 
9:00 AM
 
Alex Schindelar
10:00 AM

The Covid pandemic and the energy transition have turned the downstream upside down. Plastics boomed while fuels use cratered. How will companies deal with shifting demands for products and manage their own pressures from investors to lower emissions?

Berta Cabello Olli Nissinen Khaled Salmeen Abhi Rajendran
11:00 AM

The IEA’s net-zero scenario sees Opec market share rising to record highs, but in a rapidly shrinking market with falling prices. Producers argue that their low-cost production is safe even in a challenged market. But how will they respond to the existential threat of a global transition away from oil? By staying united to preserve revenues? Or by maximizing production to monetize resources and capture market share? How will Opec-plus navigate the challenges ahead?     

H.E. Mohammed Sanusi Barkindo H.E. Ihsan Abdul Jabbar Ismaael Amena Bakr
12:00 PM
 
Ben van Beurden Noah Brenner
12:40 PM

LNG experts Ian Nathan and Clara Tan discuss Energy Intelligence’s latest long-term LNG supply/demand forecast. The LNG market is reaching new heights this year, but gas-supportive policy is approaching an inflection point. Pandemic-era constraints are giving way to new long-term risks, with critical implications for LNG market stakeholders.

Ian Nathan Clara Tan
1:00 PM
 
Toufik Hakkar Tom Pepper
1:40 PM

LNG experts Ian Nathan and Clara Tan discuss Energy Intelligence’s latest long-term LNG supply/demand forecast. The LNG market is reaching new heights this year, but gas-supportive policy is approaching an inflection point. Pandemic-era constraints are giving way to new long-term risks, with critical implications for LNG market stakeholders.

Ian Nathan Clara Tan
2:00 PM

How will large energy companies and utilities co-exist in the power sector? Oil companies (ahem, energy companies …) want to compete in the power sector but utilities will not give up market share easily. What advantages does each side have? Are there win-win options to work together? Who will provide the power to electrify everything?

Paddy Padmanathan Martijn Rats Laurent Wolffsheim Philippe Roos
3:00 PM

Oilfield service companies built the modern hydrocarbon energy system, from offshore platforms to refineries. Will they build the next one? How well are they adapting to the transition? What will the service company of the future look like?

Olivier Le Peuch Arnaud Pieton Andrew Gould
4:00 PM
 
T. Preston Gillespie TJ Conway
5:00 PM

Nuclear energy provides low-carbon baseload power but worries about safety and high costs have kept it on the sidelines of the energy transition. Does nuclear have a greater place in a net-zero world? Can old reactors stay in the running? Will new designs get off the ground?

Kirsty Gogan Amory Lovins Alison Silverstein Philip Chaffee
6:00 PM

Shifting strategies and new risks from the energy transition have shaken up the LNG landscape. Are the majors still interested in expansion? Which US projects will move ahead? What defines a successful LNG project? Is a carbon capture plan required for new supplies? Where are the hotspots for future investment?

Dan Brouillette Samik Mukherjee Ian Nathan
7:00 PM
 
Jeffrey W. Martin Michael Sultan
8:00 PM

The airline industry’s ambitious emissions targets are shaking up the jet fuel industry. Suppliers are racing to develop new sustainable aviation fuels and ramp up production to meet demand. Will there be enough sustainable fuel to power a decarbonized airline industry – and at what price? Will electric or hydrogen aircraft ever take off?

Thorsten Lange Jimmy Samartzis Nancy N. Young Cristina Haus
8:45 PM
 
 
8:00 AM
Welcome & Introductions
 
Alex Schindelar
8:10 AM
Electric vehicles: In the fast lane

Sales of electric vehicles are sky-rocketing in some countries, but still make up a fraction of the global fleet. How quickly will EVs become mainstream? When will they be cheaper than conventional cars? Is there enough charging infrastructure – or power supply? How quickly will consumers embrace them? And how hard will governments push their adoption? Such questions will be critical to the reshaping of the transport sector – and the outlook for oil demand.

Stephan Herbst Julia Poliscanova Lauren Craft
9:00 AM
Leadership Dialogue - INPEX
 
Takayuki Ueda Clara Tan
10:00 AM
Hydrogen – Fuel of the future?

Hydrogen is back in the limelight as decarbonization targets shape up. After disappointments in the past, will it live up to the hype this time? How quickly will “green” hydrogen from renewables push down costs? How big is the role for “blue” hydrogen from natural gas? Will hydrogen be limited to a hard-to-decarbonize sector, or emerge as one of the world’s key fuels of the future?

Satoshi Asawa Ahmad Al Khowaiter Louise Jacobsen Plutt TJ Conway
11:00 AM
Leadership Dialogue - Air Products
 
Seifi Ghasemi Alex Martinos
12:00 PM
Leadership Dialogue - Repsol
 
Josu Jon Imaz Noah Brenner
12:40 PM
Our Take: Energy Intelligence Levelized Cost of Energy Outlook

Energy Intelligence experts Philippe Roos and Alex Martinos discuss our Levelized Cost of Energy analysis, showing how solar and wind are set to enjoy ongoing cost declines. Cheap renewable electricity will drive much of the energy transition, and will create both challenges and opportunities for the oil and gas industry.

Alex Martinos Philippe Roos
1:00 PM
Investors and activists – How shareholders will shape the energy transition

Activist and investors have driven a shakeup of corporate strategies across the oil industry and beyond. Their focus has evolved quickly from climate disclosure to targets to action and strategy. How far will they go in directing the strategy of major oil companies? What exactly do they want companies to do? And as demands continue to evolve, what should companies be prepared for in the next stage?

Kim Fustier Adam Matthews Mark Van Baal Philippe Roos
2:00 PM
Leadership Dialogue - Occidental
 
Vicki Hollub Casey Merriman
2:40 PM
Energy Intelligence Briefing: Briefing: Break-even Oil Price Analysis

Energy Intelligence geopolitical risk experts Colby Connelly and Amena Bakr discuss our latest analysis of external breakeven oil prices for Opec and key Opec-plus producers. Critical factors impacting our breakeven outlook include continued tapering of Opec-plus quotas, challenges reversing production declines and rising natural gas prices.

Amena Bakr Colby Connelly
3:00 PM
Supply-Demand Dynamics: Is the world heading for an oil crunch (and why does nobody seem to care)? 

Oil demand is rebounding from the pandemic, and looks set to grow for at least a few years. But investors, policy makers and even the IEA seem laser-focused on the energy transition, with little time for oil security of supply. With IOCs rethinking strategies, will enough money flow into upstream oil to meet demand and counter declines? Is the world heading inexorably toward a mid-2020s crunch? Or will US shale come to the rescue again? If prices rise, how will industry, consumers and policymakers respond? 

Helima Croft Dr. Bassam Fattouh Dr. Edward L. Morse Abhi Rajendran
4:00 PM
Leadership Dialogue - IAEA
 
Rafael Mariano Grossi Stephanie Cooke
4:40 PM
Our Take: Energy Intelligence Nuclear Newbuild Outlook

Energy Intelligence nuclear experts Stephanie Cooke and Phil Chaffee discuss the newly released Energy Intelligence annual nuclear newbuild report, including the geopolitics of who is building new reactors, who is selling them and how this might fit into the global energy transition. 

Philip Chaffee Stephanie Cooke
5:00 PM
The Economics of the Energy Transition

Held in memory of our long-time friend and colleague Dr. Herman Franssen

The energy transition is upending global markets and is only just beginning. How is the transition challenging the discipline of energy economics? How can economic research drive good policy choices? We talk to leading economists to understand the challenges and opportunities for economics to help guide policymakers and society to create a clean, efficient and equitable energy system.

Carol Dahl Kenneth Gillingham Marianne Kah David Pike
6:00 PM
Successful venture investing: Nurturing the next big thing

Energy firms are tapping start-up companies for new ideas, from decarbonizing oil and gas operations to the electrification of transport. What successful ideas and companies have come out of this cooperation? Can Big Oil and venture capital really work well together? Hear from venture executives and founders about what works and what doesn’t, and when early-stage endeavors might begin to bear fruit.

Gareth Burns Miriam Eaves Scott Gale Joshua Haacker Luke Johnson
7:00 PM
CCS – Can carbon capture break through?

Carbon capture is generally seen as vital to the transition, but the cost and deployment challenges remain daunting. How can carbon capture finally break through after decades of slow progress? What will bring its costs down? Should oil companies or governments drive this change? Is it really feasible to build a massive CCS industry almost from scratch?

Nick Cooper Dr. Stephanie Nitopi Karris Thomas Holmberg David Pike
7:45 PM
Closing Remarks